Milk Road

🥛 This is make or break for crypto 🥴

The Senate Banking Committee is voting tomorrow on the CLARITY Act, the first crypto market structure bill in U.S. history, which splits regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Two of three major blockers (developer protections and stablecoin yield) are largely resolved, but ethics concerns around Trump-family crypto profits and banking lobby opposition leave the outcome uncertain. Polymarket puts odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at 60%, while Galaxy's Alex Thorn estimates 55% passage probability.

🥛 Our lead analyst just sold BTC 🤨

Milk Road's lead analyst Martin trimmed his Bitcoin, Coinbase, and Tesla positions to raise cash and reduce crypto correlation, rotating proceeds into Uber stock. The thesis centers on Uber as a superior autonomous vehicle play — asset-light, growing bookings 8x faster than headcount, with $9.8B FCF in 2025 and AV partnerships with Waymo, Rivian, and others. The newsletter also covers Circle's Agent Stack launch and Bridge's free stablecoin guide.

🥛 Is the crypto bottom already in? 🤔

Milk Road's macro analyst John Gillen argues the crypto bear market may have started in January 2025 (~16 months ago), putting the bottom potentially already in, though the team remains cautious without a decisive breakout. The CLARITY Act's passage odds dropped from 79% to 62% in 30 minutes due to a Senator Gillibrand ethics provision blocking government officials from launching crypto projects. Key altcoin signals being watched include ETH reclaiming $2,500, SUI strength, and ONDO's ~60% breakout on a Ripple/JP Morgan/Mastercard partnership.

🥛 'Crypto winter is over' 🥶

Milk Road's May 10, 2026 edition argues the 2026 crypto winter lasted only ~4.5 months, with Fundstrat's Mark Newton flipping bullish on Bitcoin after missing the spring rebound. Major financial institutions like Charles Schwab now recommend 2-7% Bitcoin allocations, signaling full institutional normalization. A16z's Ali Yahya predicts AI agents will dominate global financial transactions and crypto rails are the only viable infrastructure to support them.

🥛 Where crypto fits in AI's $7.6T tab 💰

🥛 This 'dead' stock owns crypto's missing piece 🤫

Milk Road PRO makes a contrarian case for Western Union (WU), arguing its 360,000-agent global cash payout network and regulatory licensing stack are exactly the infrastructure stablecoins need for last-mile cash off-ramps. Despite WU being down 70% from 2021 highs with a 5x forward P/E and 10% dividend yield, the newsletter argues the market is mispricing the company's digital business (growing 21% YoY) and its strategic value as a stablecoin distribution layer. The piece also highlights the pending $500M Intermex acquisition and management guidance for 5-8% GAAP revenue growth in 2026.

🥛 Is the bear case finally breaking? 🤔

Bitcoin broke above the upper resistance line of a bear flag pattern on May 6, 2026, trading around $81,754, potentially signaling a bullish reversal after months of consolidation. The newsletter analyzes the significance of this breakout across hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, noting that only the hourly confirmation has been achieved so far. Additional news includes Morgan Stanley adding crypto trading to E*Trade for 8.6 million customers.

🥛 Fresh analyst trade: +18% in 2 days 📈

Milk Road covers analyst Martin's trade on SK Square, a Korean holding company with ~20% stake in SK Hynix (Nvidia's primary HBM memory supplier), which gained 18% in two days. The newsletter uses the trade as a case study to highlight friction in traditional finance and the potential of RWAs (real-world assets) to democratize global stock market access. Additional news touches on the CLARITY Act at 62% on Polymarket, Coinbase layoffs, and Japan's yen intervention.

🥛 $80K: we got there. Now what? 🤔

🥛 The ‘rip-your-face-off rally’ is cooked 🍳

Milk Road's May 3, 2026 edition covers a bearish flip on the current equities rally, with strategist Lance Roberts predicting a 10-15% correction by midterms. Commodity analyst Tavi Costa warns agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and sugar are next in a macro rotation following metals and energy. On crypto, Franklin Templeton now recommends 3-6% portfolio allocation to digital assets, while John Gillen argues the last BTC cycle was never a true bull market.

🥛 Two scarcities are running the market ⚡️💻

Milk Road's May 1, 2026 edition argues that two scarcities — energy and compute — are driving global markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closure creating an oil shortfall of 6–11.4M barrels per day and semiconductor stocks hitting record highs. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's AI-deflationary thesis gives him cover to cut rates despite 3.3% inflation, and combined with ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50 and rising liquidity, the macro setup historically favors Bitcoin and crypto outperformance. Six companies account for ~70% of S&P 500 earnings upgrades, all tied to compute or energy, while the broader market sees more downgrades than upgrades.

🥛 Blockchains win. Tokens maybe. ⚡

🥛 America's newest export... 💵

🥛 Everyone's bearish → that's bullish 💀

Milk Road's macro analyst John Gillen argues that widespread bearish consensus on Bitcoin — with most expecting a bottom in Oct/Nov 2026 — is itself a contrarian bullish signal, mirroring how over-confident bulls were wiped out on October 10, 2025. Key bullish structural data points include 300,000 BTC moving into long-term holder wallets, ~78.5% of total BTC supply held by long-term holders, and $1.2B in spot crypto ETF inflows last week. The critical level to watch is $80,000 — a break above could trigger a short squeeze and ignite what Gillen calls 'the world's most hated rally.'

🥛 The market is hiding something... 🫣

🥛 "BTC is still in a bear market, full stop" 🛑

Milk Road's 'Spicy Take Sunday' edition features contrarian hot takes on Bitcoin still being in a bear market below $95,650, Ethereum being the greatest asymmetric risk/reward with a path to $250k, and a prediction that at least one major AI lab (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Gemini) will go bankrupt. Additional takes cover Bitcoin becoming a call option on international settlement rails and MicroStrategy's Stretch product driving institutional BTC inflows via new ETF products from Goldman, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley.

🥛 3 bullish charts to brighten your weekend ☀️

Milk Road's April 24, 2026 edition highlights three bullish signals for crypto investors: Bitcoin surpassing $79,000 (up 24% since the U.S.-Iran war began), $4.5B in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows since the war started, and crude oil retreating below $100 after peaking near $120. The macro backdrop is described as broadly bullish for risk assets, with the main unresolved risk being the U.S.-Iran conflict.

🥛 Why Aave isn’t a buy (yet) 👀

Milk Road PRO analyzes Aave's troubling six-week period marked by key contributor exits, governance tensions, and a major exploit, arguing the DeFi protocol faces bearish conditions despite its V4 upgrade launch. The analysis reveals power consolidating from the DAO toward Aave Labs company, with three major teams (BGD Labs, Aave Chan Initiative, Chaos Labs) departing amid revenue disputes and architectural changes.

🥛 Chainlink fixing Wall St’s $58B mess 🔥

🥛 U.S. blockade on Iran = markets hostage 😑

The U.S. has imposed a full blockade on Iran after failed nuclear talks, creating a 400M barrel oil shortfall that's constraining global markets. Despite geopolitical tensions, institutional crypto adoption continues with Michael Saylor buying Bitcoin weekly and major financial firms like Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab launching crypto products.

🥛 'Bitcoin's glory days are over' 💀

Crypto newsletter 'Milk Road' presents bearish predictions for Bitcoin's future, suggesting the 4-year cycle is dead and BTC is now coupled to traditional markets. The newsletter also discusses institutional crypto adoption through stablecoins and analyzes how AI will disrupt internet advertising models.

🥛 Is ETH the operating system for AI? 🤔

The newsletter argues that AI agents need more than just crypto payments - they need full DeFi services like borrowing, lending, and yield generation since they can't access traditional banking. An AI agent named Felix earned $300K in 5 weeks but can't open a bank account, highlighting how Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem could become the financial operating system for AI agents.

🥛 Our PRO analyst’s latest token picks 🥇

Milk Road's crypto newsletter features PRO analyst Martin's bullish picks on perpetual DEX tokens like Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Lighter (LIT), arguing these platforms have superior economics with 99% margins and automatic smart contract operations. The newsletter also covers Aligned's Ethereum infrastructure suite, Polymarket analysis, and various crypto market updates including Swiss franc stablecoin developments.

🥛 3 big pieces of news you just missed 🗞️

The newsletter covers geopolitical developments affecting crypto markets, including a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that was quickly violated by a drone strike on Saudi oil infrastructure, Iran's proposal to charge Bitcoin tolls for Strait of Hormuz passage, and a White House report challenging banking industry arguments against stablecoin yield.

🥛 “A whole civilization will die tonight” 🤦‍♂️

Trump posted an alarming Truth Social message about Iran saying "A whole civilization will die tonight," escalating tensions as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with oil prices fluctuating between $90-120. The newsletter analyzes potential impacts on crypto and risk assets, noting that outcomes could happen within hours and affect markets significantly regardless of whether Trump acts or backs down.

🥛 BTC is flat → that's... bullish? 🤨

Milk Road's crypto newsletter analyzes Bitcoin's flat performance as potentially bullish while warning about ongoing geopolitical risks from Iran's oil disruptions. The team discusses a major $270M exploit of Drift Protocol through sophisticated social engineering and emphasizes the importance of the CLARITY Act for crypto regulation.

🥛 'SOL is eating NASDAQ's lunch' 🍽️

Milk Road's Spicy Take Sunday edition covers major crypto market developments including Solana's execution quality now beating centralized exchanges, quantum computing threats to Bitcoin's cryptography, and a massive oil supply shock. The newsletter also discusses regulatory risks in the CLARITY Act and analyzes current bear market dynamics with institutional adoption accelerating despite poor sentiment.

🥛 AI stocks vs. crypto: a mispricing? 🥊

Milk Road argues that crypto tokens may be a better AI investment than traditional AI stocks due to valuation disparities. The newsletter suggests AI agents will drive massive adoption of DeFi protocols and blockchain infrastructure, creating a mispricing opportunity where crypto assets are undervalued relative to AI companies.

🥛 More pain incoming? 🫤

This Milk Road crypto newsletter analyzes the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closure causing oil prices above $100 and negative effects on risk assets including Bitcoin. The newsletter also covers crypto news including a $213M Solana DEX exploit, Coinbase's x402 Foundation launch, and Midnight blockchain's privacy-focused launch.

🥛 2 big pieces of news. 1 real. 1 fake. 🤨

Base released its 2026 strategy focusing on bringing major asset classes onchain, scaling payments/stablecoins, and supporting builders with AI-native tools. A fake leak claiming Anthropic's Claude had integrated Coinbase's x402 payment protocol went viral before being debunked, though the real Base developments around AI agent payments remain significant.