π₯ The βrip-your-face-off rallyβ is cooked π³
AI Summary
Milk Road's May 3, 2026 edition covers a bearish flip on the current equities rally, with strategist Lance Roberts predicting a 10-15% correction by midterms. Commodity analyst Tavi Costa warns agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and sugar are next in a macro rotation following metals and energy. On crypto, Franklin Templeton now recommends 3-6% portfolio allocation to digital assets, while John Gillen argues the last BTC cycle was never a true bull market.
Key Facts
Author Takes
Equities rally
The 'rip-your-face-off rally' is over β breadth is garbage, semis are vertical, only 5 stocks are holding it up, and a 10-15% correction is coming between May and midterms.
Agricultural commodities
Corn, wheat, and sugar are coiled at multi-year resistance and are next in the macro rotation after metals/mining and energy, with farmer bankruptcies up 46% on fertilizer prices alone adding to supply chain stress.
Bitcoin 4-year cycle
Consensus expects BTC to bottom on the 4-year cycle in Oct/Nov 2026, but when everyone is positioned the same way, the market usually pulls the rug in the opposite direction.
CLARITY Act
Flipped bearish on the CLARITY Act, saying there is 'very, very, very little margin of error' remaining.
AI industrializing human knowledge
AI will bulk-solve entire disciplines β math is largely done, physics is next, and by 2032-2035 we will be building Dyson swarms and putting GPUs in sun-synchronous orbit around Earth.
Crypto hacks
The only chart in crypto that is consistently up and to the right is the number of crypto hacks per month.
Contrarian Angle
Bitcoin Was Never in a Real Bull Market
John Gillen argues that despite BTC being technically in a bull market for 4 years, there was no euphoric blow-off top or crazy alt season β just a slow grind up, meaning the cycle thesis everyone is positioned around may be wrong.
Consensus is positioned for a BTC bottom in Oct/Nov 2026 on the 4-year cycle, but Gillen says when everyone is positioned the same way, the market tends to move in the opposite direction.
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