π₯ "BTC is still in a bear market, full stop" π
AI Summary
Milk Road's 'Spicy Take Sunday' edition features contrarian hot takes on Bitcoin still being in a bear market below $95,650, Ethereum being the greatest asymmetric risk/reward with a path to $250k, and a prediction that at least one major AI lab (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Gemini) will go bankrupt. Additional takes cover Bitcoin becoming a call option on international settlement rails and MicroStrategy's Stretch product driving institutional BTC inflows via new ETF products from Goldman, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley.
Key Facts
Author Takes
Bitcoin bear market
BTC is still in a bear market below the 2-day 200 MA at ~$95,650; the current relief rally doesn't change the technical picture.
Ethereum as monetary asset
ETH is the greatest asymmetric risk/reward of our lifetimes, more secure than Bitcoin, and could reach $250k if repriced as a monetary asset rather than a tech token.
AI lab survival
At least one of Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, or Gemini will not exist in a few years because AI models have zero moat and inference costs scale negatively with user engagement.
Bitcoin as international settlement rails
Iran's request for shipping tolls in BTC moved the probability of Bitcoin becoming apolitical international settlement rails from ~2% to 15-20%, justifying raising the 2035 BTC target from $1.3M to $2.3M.
5-year asset allocation
The only assets worth holding for 5 years are NVIDIA, Tesla, BTC, and potentially ETH and Coinbase.
Contrarian Angle
S&P 500 Forward Returns Are Highest When Market Is At All-Time Highs
Caleb Franzen argues that picking any random date to invest in the S&P 500 yields the highest forward one-year returns when the market is at all-time highs β the opposite of conventional 'wait for a dip' wisdom.
Conventional wisdom says buying at all-time highs is risky; data shows it's actually when forward returns are highest.
ETH Is More Secure Than Bitcoin and Should Be Priced as a Monetary Asset
Michael McGuiness argues it would only cost ~$6B to 51% attack Bitcoin, while ETH's proof-of-stake security scales with market cap β making ETH structurally more secure and deserving of monetary asset repricing to $250k.
Mainstream crypto narrative frames Bitcoin as the superior store of value and security model; this directly challenges that assumption.
Next Marginal Bitcoin Buyer Is Morgan Stanley Wealth Clients, Not Retail
John Gillen argues that the next wave of BTC demand comes from wealth management clients accessing Bitcoin income ETF products launched by Goldman, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley in response to MicroStrategy Stretch's 11.5% yield product.
Most BTC bull narratives focus on retail or crypto-native buyers; this thesis centers on traditional wealth management as the demand driver.
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