๐ฅ This is make or break for crypto ๐ฅด
AI Summary
The Senate Banking Committee is voting tomorrow on the CLARITY Act, the first crypto market structure bill in U.S. history, which splits regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. Two of three major blockers (developer protections and stablecoin yield) are largely resolved, but ethics concerns around Trump-family crypto profits and banking lobby opposition leave the outcome uncertain. Polymarket puts odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 at 60%, while Galaxy's Alex Thorn estimates 55% passage probability.
Key Facts
Author Takes
CLARITY Act passage
The path to passage exists, but the margin for error is gone โ Gillen flipped bearish on the CLARITY Act two weeks ago.
CLARITY Act failure consequences
If the CLARITY Act fails tomorrow, crypto could return to regulation-by-enforcement and it could take years โ if ever โ for the bill to come back around.
Contrarian Angle
Foreign Stablecoin Inflows Outpace Domestic Deposit Flight 2-to-1
Galaxy's modeling shows that U.S. stablecoin adoption would attract foreign capital inflows at twice the rate of domestic bank deposit migration, while also generating massive new demand for U.S. Treasury debt โ the opposite of what banking lobbyists claim.
Banking lobby argues stablecoins will drain deposits and collapse banks, but Galaxy data shows net positive capital flows into the U.S. system
Related topics
More from Milk Road
๐ฅ Our lead analyst just sold BTC ๐คจ
Milk Road's lead analyst Martin trimmed his Bitcoin, Coinbase, and Tesla positions to raise cash and reduce crypto correlation, rotating proceeds into
๐ฅ Is the crypto bottom already in? ๐ค
Milk Road's macro analyst John Gillen argues the crypto bear market may have started in January 2025 (~16 months ago), putting the bottom potentially
๐ฅ 'Crypto winter is over' ๐ฅถ
Milk Road's May 10, 2026 edition argues the 2026 crypto winter lasted only ~4.5 months, with Fundstrat's Mark Newton flipping bullish on Bitcoin after