🥛 Is the crypto bottom already in? 🤔

Crypto bottom timing

The crypto bear market likely started in January 2025 making it ~16 months long, and the bottom is really getting close or may already be in — though a decisive upside breakout is still needed for confirmation.

CLARITY Act passage risk

If the CLARITY Act fails due to the Gillibrand ethics provision, that would be a pretty significant headwind for the crypto market short-term given how much bullishness is front-running its passage.

S&P 500 outlook

Six straight green weeks for the S&P 500 won't last forever and John expects a breather, potentially retesting 7,200 or 7,000, raising the question of whether Bitcoin follows equities lower or decouples.

Overall crypto market strategy

The approach remains largely unchanged — accumulate on any dips — as bearish sentiment appears to be flipping and discounted entries during broader pullbacks are the desired opportunity.

Bear Market Started in January 2025, Not October 2025

John Gillen and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argue the real crypto top was January 2025, making the bear market ~16 months long — meaning the bottom is closer than the mainstream ~8-month narrative suggests.

Mainstream consensus pegs the bear market at ~8 months starting October 2025, but the January 2025 thesis doubles the timeline and changes the bottom-calling calculus entirely.