🥛 Two scarcities are running the market ⚡️💻

Q: The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a 6–11.4M barrel/day oil shortfall, pushing Brent crude to

The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a 6–11.4M barrel/day oil shortfall, pushing Brent crude to $105–110 and the global oil bill toward $5–8T annually.

Q: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh views AI as deflationary, giving him cover to cut rates despite 3.3% U.S.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh views AI as deflationary, giving him cover to cut rates despite 3.3% U.S. inflation, which combined with ISM PMI above 50 historically sets up Bitcoin and crypto to outperform.

Q: The SOX semiconductor index rose 18 days straight to hit 43% above its 200-day moving average — the

The SOX semiconductor index rose 18 days straight to hit 43% above its 200-day moving average — the widest spread since June 2000 — as compute scarcity drives a narrow group of winners dominating S&P 500 earnings upgrades.

Milk Road·Friday, May 1, 2026·5 min read

Crypto/Web3 Finance Technology

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AI Summary

Milk Road's May 1, 2026 edition argues that two scarcities — energy and compute — are driving global markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closure creating an oil shortfall of 6–11.4M barrels per day and semiconductor stocks hitting record highs. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's AI-deflationary thesis gives him cover to cut rates despite 3.3% inflation, and combined with ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50 and rising liquidity, the macro setup historically favors Bitcoin and crypto outperformance. Six companies account for ~70% of S&P 500 earnings upgrades, all tied to compute or energy, while the broader market sees more downgrades than upgrades.

Key Facts

✓The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a 6–11.4M barrel/day oil shortfall, pushing Brent crude to $105–110 and the global oil bill toward $5–8T annually.

✓New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh views AI as deflationary, giving him cover to cut rates despite 3.3% U.S. inflation, which combined with ISM PMI above 50 historically sets up Bitcoin and crypto to outperform.

✓The SOX semiconductor index rose 18 days straight to hit 43% above its 200-day moving average — the widest spread since June 2000 — as compute scarcity drives a narrow group of winners dominating S&P 500 earnings upgrades.

Author Takes

BullishMilk Road

AI and Federal Reserve policy

Kevin Warsh's belief that AI is deflationary gives him political cover to cut rates even with inflation at a two-year high, which is net positive for risk assets.

BullishMilk Road

Bitcoin short-term vs. macro setup

Despite BTC being in a downtrend with market positioned for new lows, bullish macro tailwinds are stacking and a short squeeze is on the table, especially if the CLARITY Act lands as a catalyst.

BearishMilk Road

Broad market vs. concentrated winners

More S&P 500 stocks are getting earnings revised down than up — six companies account for ~70% of earnings upgrades, making index-level calm deceptive.

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