☕ Bad bet

Q: A bipartisan Senate bill would ban Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports prediction contracts b

A bipartisan Senate bill would ban Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports prediction contracts by closing a CFTC loophole that let them operate in all 50 states.

Q: Kalshi reported 90% of its 2025 NFL season volume was sports-related and saw $2.67B in weekly sports

Kalshi reported 90% of its 2025 NFL season volume was sports-related and saw $2.67B in weekly sports trades during March Madness, making the ban existentially significant.

Q: Traditional sportsbooks FanDuel (+4.4%), DraftKings (+1.2%), PENN Entertainment (+5.6%), and MGM (+4

Traditional sportsbooks FanDuel (+4.4%), DraftKings (+1.2%), PENN Entertainment (+5.6%), and MGM (+4.5%) all rallied on news of the potential ban.

Morning Brew·Tuesday, March 24, 2026·10 min read

Finance Sports Regulation

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AI Summary

A bipartisan Senate bill would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports and casino contracts by closing a CFTC regulatory loophole. Sports contracts drive the majority of prediction market volume — Kalshi saw $2.67B in weekly sports trades during March Madness. Traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings rallied on the news, while US-Iran diplomatic talks pushed broader markets higher.

Key Facts

✓A bipartisan Senate bill would ban Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports prediction contracts by closing a CFTC loophole that let them operate in all 50 states.

✓Kalshi reported 90% of its 2025 NFL season volume was sports-related and saw $2.67B in weekly sports trades during March Madness, making the ban existentially significant.

✓Traditional sportsbooks FanDuel (+4.4%), DraftKings (+1.2%), PENN Entertainment (+5.6%), and MGM (+4.5%) all rallied on news of the potential ban.

Author Takes

SkepticalMorning Brew

Prediction markets and sports betting

Prediction markets using the 'it's not technically sports betting' CFTC loophole was always a flimsy excuse that spouses — and now lawmakers — never believed.

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