๐ช Friday Charts
AI Summary
Byron Gilliam's Friday Charts edition examines whether AI tokens will become more productive and cost-effective than human workers, using data from Meta layoffs, Google's AI code generation stats, and surging token usage. Key tension: S&P 500 companies report only $300M in AI productivity gains while Anthropic earns that in 1.5 days, raising questions about whether 'tokenmaxxing' is genuinely productive. Stock market is near all-time highs driven by AI earnings optimism, while consumer sentiment falls due to job fears.
Key Facts
Author Takes
AI job fears
Job fears are not irrational โ Anthropic's own study shows fear is well-correlated with actual AI exposure in one's role.
Token cost trajectory
Token costs could surge as VC subsidies end, mirroring ride-sharing price hikes, potentially making AI agents unaffordable and humans more cost-effective.
S&P 500 valuation
The market may not be as cheap as it looks if high profit margins don't convert to free cash flow.
Tokenmaxxing productivity
Employees at Meta and Microsoft burning tokens as fast as possible may look industrious but it's unclear whether that token usage generates real economic value.
Contrarian Angle
Tokens May Price Themselves Out of the Job Market
Byron Gilliam argues that as VC subsidies dry up and model costs rise, AI agents could face their own 'layoffs' as humans become more cost-effective than tokens.
Counter-narrative to AI-replacing-humans: suggests AI token costs could rise fast enough to make human labor more economical again.
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