πͺ Thursday links
AI Summary
Byron Gilliam analyzes the Wall Street-ification of prediction markets, explores new evidence about Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto's identity, and discusses research showing that unpredictable trading strategies outperform predictable ones. The newsletter also covers potential computing shortages that could make human labor competitive with AI.
Key Facts
Author Takes
Prediction markets vs equity markets
Counters that prediction markets are negative-sum (gambling) while equity markets are positive-sum (investing)
Adam Back as Satoshi
Hard to imagine real Satoshi partnering with Cantor Fitzgerald to put coins on stock exchange
Contrarian Angle
Unpredictable Trading Strategy
Research shows that the least predictable portfolio managers significantly outperform their peers, challenging conventional wisdom about consistent investing processes
Goes against typical asset management advice to follow consistent processes and exploit repeatable edges
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