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The BreakdownΒ·Β·6 min read
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AI Summary

This newsletter discusses the shift away from AI doomerism, presenting evidence that AI job displacement fears may be overblown while software engineering jobs are actually increasing. It features contrasting viewpoints from AI leaders and presents market data showing software stocks trading at discounted valuations despite strong fundamentals.

Key Facts

βœ“Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark says AI doesn't replace people but changes work in a good way, while TrueUp shows software engineering jobs up 78% from post-ChatGPT lows.
βœ“Thoma Bravo identifies a dislocation where software stock valuations have decoupled from strong fundamentals, creating investment opportunities.
βœ“Nvidia Blackwell GPU rental rates are rising as AI agents burn through tokens, while Anthropic plans to IPO in Q4 2026.

Author Takes

SkepticalThe Breakdown

AI extinction risk

If AI can't put software engineers out of work, it probably cannot exterminate humanity either

SkepticalThe Breakdown

AI doomerism

Dire AI warnings are losing shock value because we've heard them for some time and not much has happened yet

Contrarian Angle

Services-as-Software Market Expansion

Coatue argues shifting from tools to results expands addressable market 25x

Reverses traditional SaaS model by focusing on outcomes rather than tool provision

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