Milk Road Macro
Intelligence extracted from Milk Road Macro newsletters.
12
Issues Tracked
30
Insights Extracted
5
Topics Covered
Topics
Key Insights from Milk Road Macro
**Intel** is reportedly building chips for **Apple**, with Intel stock having tripled since late March on the AI infrastructure boom.
**Trump** is traveling to China with a delegation of U.S. CEOs to meet **Xi Jinping** on tech and rare earth elements, with markets expecting major trade announcements.
**Ric Edelman** predicts **Bitcoin** hits $500k by 2030 and argues investors should hold a 10-40% crypto sleeve as the 60/40 portfolio model is obsolete.
**NVIDIA** and **Corning** announced a partnership to build 3 new factories in NC and Texas, boosting optical connectivity capacity 10x and adding 3,000 jobs, with NVIDIA buying $500M worth of Corning warrants.
A potential **U.S.-Iran** peace deal is causing **Brent Crude** to drop 5.7% to $103 and **WTI** to fall over 10.5%, acting as a 'stealth stimulus' that sent airline and cruise stocks up 5%+.
**Mark Newton** of Fundstrat sees no reason to be bearish, expects crude to slide toward $60, gold to peak in Sep-Oct, and **Bitcoin** unlikely to make new 2026 lows with a tactical buy in the low-$70ks.
**Bank of Japan** spent an estimated **$34.5B** defending the yen after it breached the ¥160/dollar level, with Finance Minister warning more intervention is coming.
**Trump** raised tariffs on **European cars and trucks** to 25% (from 15%), sending **Porsche**, **Mercedes**, and **Continental** stocks down 3-5%.
**Berkshire Hathaway**'s cash pile hit a record **$397B** as markets remain elevated despite escalating trade war and Iran-driven energy risks.
**Brent Crude** hit $109/barrel as the **Strait of Hormuz** remains closed, with **Goldman Sachs** warning of $140/barrel by July if unresolved.
Latest issue: May 12, 2026
🥛 Trump’s Chinese field trip ✈️
Intel is reportedly building chips for Apple, with Intel stock up 5% and having tripled since late March amid the broader AI infrastructure rally. President Trump is traveling to China to meet with Xi Jinping on tech and rare earth elements, accompanied by a cohort of U.S. CEOs. The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair this week, while U.S. inflation data is also due.
🥛 The Great Re-Industrialization 🏭
Milk Road Macro's May 7, 2026 edition covers NVIDIA and Corning's major partnership to build three new factories in NC and Texas, boosting optical connectivity capacity 10x for AI infrastructure. Reports of a U.S.-Iran 'one-page' peace deal are causing oil prices to drop sharply, with Brent crude falling 5.7% and WTI over 10.5%. Technical strategist Mark Newton of Fundstrat argues there is no reason to be bearish, citing strong bullish reversals and ongoing AI CapEx spending.
🥛 The Yentervention 💴
The Japanese Yen weakened past ¥160 per dollar, prompting an estimated $34.5B Bank of Japan intervention, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warning of continued 'decisive action.' President Trump escalated trade tensions by raising tariffs on European cars and trucks from 15% to 25%, causing European auto stocks like Porsche, Mercedes, and Continental to drop 2-5%. Markets remain elevated despite mounting risks from trade wars and Iran-driven energy shocks.
🥛 OPEC breaks up as the Fed chair changes 🛢️
🥛 Energy and compute scarcity are letting the bulls run wild 🐂
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushing Brent Crude to $109/barrel with Goldman Sachs warning of $140/barrel by July if unresolved. The U.S. government's $9B investment in Intel (made August 2025) yielded a $27B profit after Intel shares surged 24% to a 26-year high above $82. The newsletter argues that global scarcity of energy and compute is the dominant macro theme driving markets.
🥛 S&P 7,100, Oil drought, and a $3T bond bet 💰
Markets continue rallying despite growing inflation risks, with the S&P 500 breaking through 7,100 and Bank of America declaring a 'bubble-like regime.' The Strait of Hormuz blockade creates the largest oil supply shock in history with 600M barrels of lost production, while Europe plans Blue Bonds to create a 25% GDP alternative to US Treasury markets.
🥛 The strait is closed. Markets don’t care (yet) 🚧
🥛 What does the war mean for the U.S. economy? 🇺🇸
The newsletter analyzes the economic impact of the Iran war on the US economy, focusing on wartime labor market data for March 2026. Despite energy price shocks from the ongoing conflict, the US added 178,000 jobs in March, significantly beating expectations.
🥛 What’s going on with the war? Nobody knows 🤷♂️
Newsletter discusses the ongoing Iran war and its impact on global markets, with oil remaining above $100 due to the closed Strait of Hormuz. Markets are volatile amid contradictory headlines about potential ceasefires and escalation, while foreign central banks are selling U.S. Treasuries at the fastest pace since 2012.
🥛 Bye TACO, hello NACHO 🇺🇸
The newsletter discusses how Trump's market influence is waning during the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, with oil prices reaching $100-120 in the 'stagflation zone'. It introduces the concept of 'NACHO headlines' (Not Actually Changing Hormuz Opening) replacing the previous 'TACO headlines' (Trump Always Chickens Out) as markets focus solely on reopening the vital oil shipping route.
🥛 When will the war end? ⏳
The Iran war continues to dominate global markets with oil prices rising $1.00 per gallon since conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Economic data shows slowing growth with rising inflation as March PMI data indicates GDP at just 1% annualized pace while consumer prices accelerate to 4%. Both sides are negotiating through third-party mediators with the U.S. proposing a 15-point plan and Iran countering with a 5-point plan, while U.S. military forces prepare for potential escalation.
🥛 Will the war cause a global recession? 🌍
The newsletter analyzes the ongoing Iran war's impact on global oil markets, noting the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with a ~10M barrel/day shortfall even after policy interventions. Contradictory signals emerged Monday around potential U.S.-Iran negotiations, briefly rallying risk assets before overnight missile attacks dashed optimism. Analysts warn that without reopening the strait, either oil prices must rise enough to destroy demand or the global economy faces a pandemic-style shutdown.