🥛 Macro remains risk-off, for now ⏳

Q: Milk Road Macro Index improved slightly to -0.93 but remains in CASH mode as bonds calmed on expecte

Milk Road Macro Index improved slightly to -0.93 but remains in CASH mode as bonds calmed on expected Fed pause.

Q: Bitcoin and crypto are shrugging off macro headwinds, suggesting early bull market; author sees last

Bitcoin and crypto are shrugging off macro headwinds, suggesting early bull market; author sees last FUD before breakout.

Q: September CPI drops tomorrow; +0.2% core could confirm pause, +0.3%+ would erode both pillars.

September CPI drops tomorrow; +0.2% core could confirm pause, +0.3%+ would erode both pillars.

·Monday, October 12, 2026·7 min read

Finance Crypto/Web3

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AI Summary

Milk Road's Macro Index improved slightly to -0.93 as the bond market calmed on expectations of a Fed pause, but stocks and the real economy show mixed signals. Bitcoin and crypto are holding up well despite macro headwinds, suggesting a possible new bull market. September CPI data due tomorrow could determine the next market move.

Key Facts

✓Milk Road Macro Index improved slightly to -0.93 but remains in CASH mode as bonds calmed on expected Fed pause.

✓Bitcoin and crypto are shrugging off macro headwinds, suggesting early bull market; author sees last FUD before breakout.

✓September CPI drops tomorrow; +0.2% core could confirm pause, +0.3%+ would erode both pillars.

Author Takes

Bullish

Crypto vs macro

Crypto is in the early innings of a new bull market and shrugging off macro headwinds; once Fed signals done, Bitcoin might already be over $100K.

Bearish

Stock market

Stock rally is running on just two letters: AI, and breadth is historically bad.

Bearish

Strait of Hormuz

Oil chokepoint closure leaves Fed stuck with no clean exit, feeding stagflation risks.

🥛 Macro remains risk-off, for now ⏳

AI Summary

Key Facts

Author Takes

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